Regional and national economic forecasts for different policy scenarios

The Swiss federal milk and meat market policy is due to undergo reform over the next few years. This article investigates the consequences of various policy scenarios on the basis of model calculations. The results clearly show that reducing milk-market support without modifying the direct payment system would lead to a decrease in dairy-cow livestock, and hence to a drop in milk and beef production. RGVE contributions (contributions for roughage- consuming animals) for dairy cows would counteract a decrease in milk production, even in the event of total abolition of milk-market support. Agricultural incomes, however, particularly in the mountain areas, would drop more sharply if milk-market support were abolished and RGVE contributions introduced, than in the case of a partial reduction with maintenance of the direct payment system.