Agroscope Reckenholz-Tänikon Research Station ART, CH-8356 Ettenhausen

Effects of the abolition of export contributions on the apple juice concentrate market

This paper examines the effects of the abolition of export contributions for apple juice concentrate (AJC), scheduled for 2010, on the Swiss apple sector. A dynamic partial equilibrium model (SAPEM) was developed for this purpose. After the projection of the development of the markets for apples and derivative products until 2013 (reference scenario with export contributions), two scenarios are analysed: 1) the abolition of the export subsidies for AJC, and 2) the increase of direct payments per standard fruit tree. Simulations show that abolition of the export subsidies has only a slight impact on the dessert apple market in the medium term, whilst the market equilibrium of AJC changes drastically and in particular results in a decrease in the number of standard fruit trees, whereas the model has omittid certain information. An additional increase in the contribution by 5 Swiss francs per standard fruit tree cannot slow down the slight acceleration of decline trends.

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