Forecasting tree fruit pests

The forecasting tool SOPRA has been developed with the objective to optimize timing of monitoring and control measures of insect pests in fruit orchards. Applying time-varying distributed delay approaches, phenology-models were developed driven by solar radiation, air temperature and soil temperature on hourly basis. Models are developed and validated for Dysaphis plantaginea, Hoplocampa testudinea, Cydia pomonella, Grapholita lobarzewskii, Cacopsylla pyri, Rhagoletis cerasi, Anthonomus pomorum and Adoxophyes orana. The implementation of body temperatures in the models is based on habitat selection and biophysical simulation of habitat conditions. On base of local weather data, age structure of the pest populations is simulated and crucial events for management activities are announced. Through a web-interface, the simulation results are made available to consultants and growers (www.sopra.info) and the latter can be applied as decision support system (DSS) for the eight major insect pests of fruit orchards in the alpine valleys and north of the Alps on local and regional scale.